So I broke down. I finished the arming doublet to the furthest point I could and finished the first camping dress. The other one is now in the UFO bin, hopefully not for too long though.
I worked out the mockup for my IRCC bodice, then laid it out on paper to trace the top edge. Then proceeded with measuring and plotting out the applique design as close as possible to that in the portrait. I filled it in with sharpie and pinned the front portion of it to my dummy for contemplation. It looks pretty good, but there are definitely a few things I need to tweak; straightening out the black lines and trying to make the design flow seamlessly over the shoulder. Trying to figure out how to make the bottom front corners of the design flow under the sleeves and not be just 'out there', if that makes sense.